About six months from our last tariff update (and almost one year since “Liberation Day”), here we are with a new one. And it probably won’t be the last.
Supreme Court rulings, more trade act sections than we cared to know existed, and semi-negotiated deals with numerous trade partners have brought the trade landscape, once again, to a state of flux.
Let’s take a look at where things stand.
Supreme Court Ruling, IEEPA Tariffs, and Refunds
The Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs (IEEPA being the mechanism Trump used to levy the so-called reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs).
What does that mean?
All of the different tariffs on individual countries – the same ones used as leverage in trade deal negotiations – are now cancelled. For the moment, all countries are treated as they were before all of this started.
So what about refunds?
The supreme court was quiet on that front. Some large companies, like FedEx and Costco, have already sued the government for refunds. But for smaller businesses that likely paid the bulk of the $175 billion in tariffs collected so far, suing may not be viable.
Global 10% Tariff (or is it 15?)
As soon as the Supreme Court ruling was released, Trump announced a 10% global Section 122 tariff. Then he increased it to 15% the next day.
Sidebar: these “sections” are just literal sections of trade acts passed by congress that give the president authority to impose tariffs under different circumstances.
Section 122 is limited to a max of 15% and 150 days. So, the administration has to use other mechanisms to recreate the original reciprocal tariffs.
Enter Sections 232, 301, and Friends
Feel free to Google the exact mechanisms, but to date Section 232 has been used for sector-specific tariffs (think the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs that made the news last year), while Section 301 has been used for country- and product-specific tariffs like those imposed on China during the first Trade War.
These sections take longer to implement, require official investigations by the trade department, and are more limited in scope.
Some of the Section 232 investigations launched in 2025:
- PPE, pharmaceuticals, and medical equipment
- Unmanned Aircraft Systems (Drones)
- Semiconductors
- Timber and lumber
Expect more to come, and possible Section 301 investigations targeting individual trading partners.
Bottom Line
The 15% global tariff means most countries face rates within 5% of where they were before the Supreme Court ruling. For the next 150 days, at least.
More country- and product-specific tariffs should be expected within the next 6 months.
Any and all of the above could be challenged in the courts again.
The bottom line is continued uncertainty, making it difficult for companies to plan and set prices.
If you are importing and want to talk tariffs, or are facing rising material costs from your local suppliers, contact us to talk all things trade.
A few days ago, Congress introduced a bill that would require CBP to pay refunds to importers. That bill would:
-Require CBP to pay refunds + interest
-Require all refunds to be paid within 180 days
-Express that importers *should* pass those refunds on to their customers
That last bullet is an interesting point.
If companies increased their prices due to tariffs, should they really be the ones getting the refunds?
But let’s take Costco as an example – is it even possible for them to refund every individual customer for individual item price increases that were due to tariffs?
Probably not.
So for these large companies, tariff refunds are likely to be a huge windfall. Increased prices to cover the tariffs up front, and refunds in their pocket for those same tariffs on the back end.